(Reporting Equal) / Author: Changjiang Securities, Matthew, Wang Ming)
1 2021 operations: supply and demand double excellent, industry boom is high
Total quantity: The business surface is steadily good, the income profit double increase
Flower is like a brilliant, the chemical industry performance is quickly repaired. In 2021, as the global new crown epidemic gradually control, the downstream needs gradually recovered, and the demand for basic chemical industry gradually repaired. From January to September 2021, the cumulative income of chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing and rubber and plastic manufacturing costs were 32.8%, 33.3%, and 17.1%, respectively. In terms of profit, January-September 2021, the chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber and plastic product industry profit increased by 126.8%, 317.9% and 5.0%, respectively. The chemical raw materials and chemicals and chemical fiber industry benefits from product prices, the profits have increased significantly, while rubber and plastic manufacturing are limited to natural rubber, carbon black and other basic products have risen sharply, and the growth rate of profit is slow, we expect 2021 The income of the annual chemical industry will achieve growth.
The gross profit margin quickly rebounded, and the cost rate was maintained. Benefiting from the rise in product prices, chemical raw materials and chemical fiber profitability have improved. From January to September 2021, the company’s sales gross profit margin of chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing industry were 18.4% and 11.5%, respectively, and higher than last year. Due to the sharp rise in raw material crude oil and rubber, the profitability of rubber and plastic manufacturing has weakened, and the gross profit margin is 15.6%, which is slightly weakened from the same period last year. The expense perspective, benefiting from the rise in raw materials, the rapid increase in industry revenue, gradually decreasing the cost rate of sub-industry, January-September 2021, chemical materials and chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing and rubber and plastic manufacturing industry three fees The cost rate is 7.0%, 4.2%, and 7.8%, respectively, which is reduced from previous years.
Demand: Domestic demand steadily repair, fast expansion of external demand
Internal Demand: New Crown Epidemic Influences gradually decline, demand is fully repaired. As the epidemic is gradually refund, demand is a repair situation, and the demand for chemical industry is gradually repaired. Spinning market, domestic cloth production in January, 2021 increased by 11.6% year-on-year; agriculture %; Air conditioning, household refrigerators, refrigerator, household washing machines from January 1-10, 2021, increased by 12.3%, 0.3%, 12.8%, 12.4%, respectively; car, from January to 10, 2021, China The accumulated car production increased by 5.4% year-on-year. Overall, the demand for domestic food and clothing and clothing is fully repaired, and the demand for driving related chemicals has grown rapidly.
External Necessity: The global economy is warm, and the export is rapidly expanded. Benefit from the influence of global epidemic prevention and control, overseas mainly has steadily repaired, driving the global demand steadily expansion. Some national production has been hindered, and China’s epidemic prevention and control is more effective, and the progress of completion of replenishment is faster, and the economic restoration needs are reached. The export is large, and the foreign demand market is in full swing.
Supply: “Carbon neutralization” superposition energy consumption dual-control, industry production is blocked
From the perspective of supply hard constraint: Constraint, industry production and expansion face more restrictions. Double carbon policy, energy consumption dual-control, and safety environmental protection, high energy consumption, high pollution industry supply restriction, under the rigid support of downstream demand, industry boom is expected to continue.
The industry is limited and the supply is shortage. Restricted to energy-consuming dual control and “carbon neutralization”, the production of chemical industry is limited, and the short-term industry has been limited in September, and the industry is not in previous years. In the demand for “Golden Jiu Silver Ten”, the industry has a decrease in construction, resulting in short-term supply shortages, and rapid product prices.
Price: Raw materials + supply and demand fluctuations, product prices are upgraded
Resource prices are gradually repaired, and the chemical price index rebounds. After June 2020, with the gradual control of the domestic epidemic, the overseas epidemic is relieved, the market demand is gradually repaired, the price of WTI and Brent crude oil rebound quickly, and the price of coal has risen rapidly, and the price index of the chemical industry has risen. As of November 19, 2021, WTI and Brent crude oil prices were 79.9 and $ 75.9 / barrel, respectively, rose 80.9% and 81.9% from the same period last year, and the CCPI price index was 5325 points, which rose 25.7% from the same period last year. In the short term, the energy consumption dual-control policy has been alleviated, driving the relevant supply tensions to alleviate, and the product price has a certain fall.
In 2021, it was gradually recovered on demand, and the external demand rapid growth driver, the chemical industry was fundamentally, and the revenue profit quickly repaired. Looking forward to 2022, economic kinetic energy continued to be good, overseas major economies gradually recovered, the global economic re-growth track, driving the demand for chemical terminal; supply, “carbon neutrics” and energy consumption and other policy impacts, chemical industry The new production capacity of some subsidiants is limited, and the boom period is expected to keep long-term.
2 One of the investment main line: demand extension, supply hard constraint sub-industry
Under the Scenario of “class,” focus on chemical structure investment opportunities. Combined with the Yangtze River Macro group “What is the difference between this round of inflation and history? “The view is that this round of inflation is caused by overseas and domestic dual factors. On the one hand, the global epidemic and currency is superflation, and the domestic dual-carbon policy has shocked the price from the supply side. In the context of “class lacking”, we have turned from the cycle to the structural investment opportunities for excavating the market, and its core grip is still demand and supplying these two major cycle traditional research elements.
Demand level, due to the changes in social and economic environment at home and abroad, the adjustment of the world’s industrial structure, the evolution of the chemical downstream consumer industry, and some of the traditional industries, the growth of real estate is limited, and the demand for upstream materials will also be restricted; some traditional industries There is still a large growth potential, and such as new energy, degradable plastics, such as new industries, such as new energy, can enter the rapid growth period, and the demand for chemical materials will also rise.
The supply level, industry capacity expansion. From the perspective of capacity expansion, in a number of policy stacks, the difficulty of chemical industry has gradually improved, and the industry’s existing capacity and energy consumption indicators will gradually focus on standard resources, industry supply patterns, and the profitability of enterprises is expected to improve. Long-term perspective, in the absence of industrial supply, industry boom is expected to rise, there is low cost, low-cost companies are expected to protect higher profitability.
New energy materials: growth space, future boom Changhong
Lithium iron phosphate: space, long-term integration
The positive electrode material of the mainstream technology route of the power battery includes lithium iron phosphate and a ternary material. Domestic, lithium iron phosphate permeability is reduced to 33% in 2019 (where only 5% of the passenger cars) is ushered in 2020, and the bottom of the bottom of the tide is opened. According to our previously released depth report “Lithium iron phosphate special: new energy gallop, industry flight” Lithium positive electrode demand is close to 2 million tons, which is the strongest part of the lithium battery chain demand.
From the technical route from the production process, lithium iron phosphate includes four routes of solid phase method (iron phosphate, iron titrates), liquid phase, and iron red. Due to the preparation process, raw material, process, energy consumption, the finally generated lithium iron phosphate is existing in performance indicators, comprehensive cost, and affects lithium iron phosphate pattern. In short, in the middle, lithium iron phosphate has a layered product in technology and quality, and we have a long time we are more optimistic about integrated enterprises, and the cost is king.
From the comparison of phosphate-solid phase cost of lithium iron phosphate precursor phosphate solid phase, the core is mainly from phosphorus source, and the iron source is low, but due to the additional value of ferrous sulfate products, the cost is lower. The difference in phosphorus source of different types of enterprises is large. Some phosphorus chemical companies have a product of phosphorus ore, phosphoric acid, phosphate and other products, so it can effectively reduce the cost of the phosphorus source, realize the integration of the industrial chain, form a certain cost advantage. The titanium powder enterprises also have a significant cost advantage due to their own self-preparation of ferrous sulfate and waste sulfuric acid.
Pure base: photovoltaic blessing, industry long boom continues
The photovoltaic glass is launched, and the pure alkali demand accelerates upward. From 2016 to 2020, China’s pure alkali industry has increased from 24.17 million tons to 25.73 million tons, and the annual compound growth rate of industry consumption is maintained at around 2%. The pure base main is used to prepare float glass and photovoltaic glass. The completion of float glass consumption and real estate completion is relatively, and the completion end will be upgraded first. At the same time, due to the vigorous development of the domestic and foreign photovoltaic industry, domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity is rapidly expanding. It is expected that Q2 to 2022 Q4 is 2021. There are nearly 20,000 tons / day (46.649 tons / year, 330 days to calculate) photovoltaic glass To pull the pure alkali demand.
The starting rate of the pure alkali industry is at a high level. After 2015, the pure alkali industry has been influenced by the supply side reform, the industrial production capacity is degraded, and the operating rate is upward. As of 2020, China’s pure alkali production capacity reached 3,317 million tons / year, and the output reached 27.592 million tons, and the starting load reached 83.2%.
Production capacity has gradually exited, and there is less new capacity in the past two years. After 2015, it was affected by industry management, and the capacity of industries gradually exited. In the future, with the gradual tightening of new pure alkaline capacity policies and Inner Mongolia, the “14th Five-Year Plan” is guaranteed to complete the “Saix Five-Year Plan”, the new production capacity is less. From 2021 to 2022, the industry expected to increase 1 million tons / annual capacity, but the industry’s exit production capacity reached 1.3 million tons / year, and the overall domestic pure alkali market supply has a certain contract.
PVDF: Positive material binder hegemony, small product greetings
The global electric vehicle industry has developed rapidly, and PVDF has an irreplaceable characteristic as a positive electrode binder material. In the future, the phosphate electrodes have high safety characteristics, which is expected to become an important development direction of lithium batteries. However, the lithium phosphate battery is small, and more binder materials are needed, and the PVDF binder demand will remain rapidly.
The faucet breaks through the technical barriers, and the domestic replacement is From the supply, the global lithium-ion electrode positive bonding material is mainly monopoly in the hands of foreign investment in Soli, Akama and Japan Wu Yuhua. In recent years, with China’s gradual layout, domestic companies are forming a certain breakthrough, expecting to gradually break the formation of foreign-funded monopoly. The production process of PVDF involves the related highly toxic chemicals and refrigerant R142Bs, involving more environmental protection and policy barriers, slow expansion of production capacity, and expansion speeds cannot be increased in the growth rate of industry demand, and future industry is expected to continue. This year, the demand for PVDF positive bonding materials increases, the industry is in short supply, the product price is fast, and it is expected that the lithium battery industry has continued to grow, the PVDF production cycle is longer, and the supply is difficult to resolve. (Report Source: Future Wisdom)
Degradable plastics: market outbreak, upstream adherent acid bokeh
Adipular acid: nylon 66 and PBAT demand potential, broad prospects
Adipic acid is an important base chemical raw material, and the consumption structure has a desirable butterfly. In 2020, my country’s adipic acid table is 12.74 million tons, and the annual compound growth rate of 2015-2020 reached 6.0%. From the perspective of domestic adipic acid’s downstream consumption structure, the PU slurry and sole stocks accounted relatively large, while PA66 and PBAT share were only 17.3% and 1.2%. Among them, China’s PA66 is significantly lower than the global average, and there is a large improvement space. At the same time, with the promotion of domestic policies, the PBAT of degradable plastics is expected to usher in a rapid development period. In the next few years, the market is expected to drive the consumption of adipic acid. It is expected that domestic adipic acid consumption in 2021 reached around 15.5 million tons, and the growth rate is expected to be 21.6%. It is expected that domestic adipic acid in 2022. Consumption reached 1.85 million tons, and the growth rate is expected to reach 19.5%.
Adipic acid is one of the key raw materials producing nylon 66, which can be synthesized with the hexametine to synthesize nylon 66, or it can produce hexonitrile as a raw material to produce hexididia. In recent years, many chemical companies in China are laying out of the nylon 66 key raw materials, and is expected to break the unfavorable situation of the neck of the overseas business card. In the future, with the production process of nylon 66 industry, it is proposed as another important raw material for the production of nylon 66, and the demand for adipic acid will also be protected by large.
Adipric acid ammonia is made of adiponitrile to increase its adiponic acid demand: Huafeng Group rely on the world’s largest adipic acid technology, scale and cost advantage, using adipic acid ammonia, start construction annual production of 30.00 million tons of hexonitrile items . In addition, Henan Languang also introduced adipic acid law technology from Swedish international chemical, and plans to build 100,000 tons of hexonitrile, which is expected to be completed in “145”. From the perspective of adipic acid method, Huafeng Group has achieved capacity of 500,000 tons of hexonitrile devices, according to the production of adipic acid ammonia production, the single consumption of hexonitrile, producing 1.0 tons Nonitrile requires 1.6 tons of adipic acid, then 500,000 tons of adiponitrile devices take 80,000 tons of adipic acid for polycondensation. In addition, Huafeng Group and Henan Light’s new 35.0 million tons / year adult product energy is also expected to bring 5600,000 tons / year of adipic acid demand increment.
Degradable plastic PBAT expansion boost adult acid demand: adipic acid is one of the raw materials producing degradable plastic PBAT, with the support of “carbon-up peaks, carbon neutrics” routes, domestic creatures Degradable plastic PBAT demand continues to grow, pull upstream adipic acid consumption. It is expected that domestic adipic acid demand has increased by 673,000 tons in 2025. According to our measurement, the demand for domestic PBAT in 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 260,000 tons, 340,000 tons, and 650,000 tons, respect to the 2025 domestic PBAT demand is expected to rise around 1.68 million tons. Production of 1 ton of PBAT is 0.4 tons, so the calculation has drawn in 2021 -2023, my country’s production of PBAT is 108,000 tons, 136,000 tons and 2.58 million tons, to 2025 is expected to rise. To 6.73 million tons.
2021-2022 Heparal acid expansion is limited, the industry supply and demand is good, and the boom is expected to go. In 2021, due to demand, supply and cost tripartite resonance, the price difference of adipic acid is constantly improved. Prospects, demand, demand, with the continuous improvement of adipanitrile, PA66 and degradable plastic PBAT demand and market, is expected to increase by at least 600,000 tons / year around 2022. Supply, 2021-2022 Hapan acid expansion is limited, the supply and demand relationship is expected to continue to maintain a good situation, and the price difference is expected to continue to increase.
Agriculture and clothing chain: demand has increased, still in the future
Fertilizer: Under the epidemic, demand strong growth
Constant nutrient nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium in the soil usually do not meet the needs of crop growth, and it is necessary to apply nitrogen-containing, phosphorus, and potassium-containing fertilizers to make up, so fertilizers are widely used in agricultural production. From the big cycle, with the continued growth of the global population and the continuous improvement of GDP, fertilizer demand has long stabilized. According to the United Nations forecast, the world’s total population will reach 9.5 billion in 2050, and the growth of fertilizer demand is continuous. Since the 1990s, developing countries mainly grow in East Asia, Latin America and South Asia, and also grows significantly in the demand for fertilizer. Therefore, the long-term growth of fertilizer growth is strong.
In the middle and short-term, under the influence of the epidemic, the fertilizer market has grown strong. Since 2020, due to factors such as epidemic impact, global disaster weather and lack of currency, the price of main grain products continued to rise, and countries attach importance to food security and pulling the needs of fertilizers. Currently, food prices are firm, or will continue to boost farmers’ enthusiasm. According to IFA prediction, the growth rate of global nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizer in 2021 is expected to reach 4.1%, 7.1%, 6.1%, significantly surpass the average growth rate of past, and then maintain stable growth.
Nitrogen fertilizer: The pattern is more dispersed, and the future is waiting to be tracked. Differentiated resource attributes from potash and phosphate fertilizer, and nitrogen fertilizer suppliers are more dispersed, including large amounts of coal chemicals, petrochemical and natural gas chemical enterprises. Domestic controlled in “carbon neutrics” and energy consumption dual-control, the total amount cannot be expanded. According to IFA prediction, there must be a certain expansion plan overseas in 2020-2025, will be released, but the expansion will gradually, and under the mobility of agricultural demand, the short-term boom is expected to continue.
Phosphate fertilizer: phosphate ore is relatively concentrated, expanded or in order, driving a large cycle, accounting for integrated enterprises. Phosphorus mine downstream application main body is phosphate fertilizer, global phosphate production is more concentrated, and overseas producers are Moroccan phosphate companies, a Japanese company, Jordan phosphate mining company and other enterprises. Phosphorus ore companies at home and abroad still have a certain expansion plan, but the cycle is longer, and the future of overseas phosphorus ore expansion will be released in order, and the industry will expect the industry to go up. Under the big cycle of phosphorus ore, we look at high-quality enterprises that are domineering, incremental elastic space huge and integrated capacity. In addition, phosphate fertilizer enterprises with phosphorus is extremely integrated. Phosphorus ore and phosphate fertilizer energy, Yun Tianhua (14.5 million tons / year, a ammonium phosphate 700,000 tons / year, diammonium phosphate 4.45 million tons / year), Xingfa Group (4.15 million tons / year, built 2 million Ton / year, a ammonium phosphate is 200,000 tons / year, ammonium diammonium phosphate is 800,000 tons / year), Chuanheng shares (3 million tons / year, construction of 4.95 million tons / year, ammonium phosphate is 140,000 tons / year .
Potassium fertilizer: oligopoly, building price alliance. From the production of production, the output of three countries in Canada, Russia, and Bai Russia in 2020 is more than 65%. my country is the fourth large potassium production country, accounting for about 12%. In this context, the global potassium plant has formed an oligarchy industrial pattern. For a longer period of time, international potash prices were monopolized by the Industrial Alliance Constructed in Potassium and Ural Potassium Fertilizer in Belarus and the Industrial Alliance of Canpotex (Plus Potassium, Muss and Gangsa). According to IFA statistics, global potash can grow smoothly, and large-scale capacity growth is expected to grow less in 2023. In recent years, in the context of demand, the potash industry is expected to maintain a high boom. The Oriental Iron Tower is currently induced by the first phase of the investment of 1.5 million tons of potassium chloride project. This project will add 500,000 tons / year, and the construction cycle is expected to double growth.
Polyester filament: the pattern is good, the faucet can
Delivery silk long and long, profit steadily. In 2022, with the advent of Pfizer small molecules, there is a gradual improvement in the new crown epidemic, and the price of shipping costs is gradually decomposed, and the clothing needs to be gradually repaired, and the polyester wire needs to be treated step by step. Supply, polyester wire industry has less new production capacity and concentrated in leading enterprises, the lead price increases, and industry profit hub is expected to move.
Acetic acid: downstream PTA expansion pull, product boom continues
The acetic acid is synthesized from methanol and Co carbonyl, which is a main product of acetate, acetate, chloroacetic acid, and acetic anhydride, and a reactive system solvent of PTA. Demand, 2020-2022 PTA capacity growth is expected to be 15.8% / 17.5% / 24.2%, and the PTA device has been put into production, significantly pulling the demand for acetic acid, and the epidemic is gradually repaired, and the resumption of consumer textile and clothing is large. Supply, 2020-2022 new has limited capacity in acetic acid, supply or match, resulting in sustained prices.
3 The two investment main line: the sub-industry that benefits cost improvement
Chemical products manufactured by tires, which will benefit from raw material prices and repair profitability. In 2021, with the landing of domestic energy and dual-control policies, the capacity of various upstream raw materials is limited, and there is a shortage of supply, leading to various raw materials, including bulk products, electricity prices, and directly lead to a substantial increase in the cost of the midstream manufacturing link. . In the middle and short-term, the middle-reacchao manufacturing company cannot raise prices in front of the downstream market, leading to sharpness of profitability. However, with the gradual relief of the global new crown epidemic and the gradual recovery of the global logistics system, some commodity prices are expected to fall, and they are taught in the middle of the chemical industry, such as tires, modified plastics, coatings, adhesives, etc.
Tire: The time has passed, the cost is expected to start
From a cost, natural rubber and synthetic rubber are the highest raw materials in the production of tires. Natural rubber, synthetic rubber is the main raw material for the production of tires, accounting for the total cost of tires. According to the data of the US Tire Manufacturing Association, natural rubber and synthetic rubber allocation accounted for 43.0% and 45.0% of the cost of half-steel tires and total steel tires, respectively. The cost of the cost is the second raw material is filled, mainly including carbon black, white carbon black, high dispersible white carbon black, etc. The wire cord is a raw material than the third, which is more than the use of the total steel tire, and therefore 12.0% and 21.0% of the cost of half-steel tires and all steel tires respectively. The cost of the tire auxiliaries in the tire manufacturing is low, accounting for 14.0% and 10.0% of the cost of half-steel and all steel tires.
From a weight, natural rubber and synthetic rubber are still the highest raw material than the highest. According to the data of Jilin Linglong Research, natural rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber mixtures and synthetic rubber totaled 41.9% and 54.5% of the weight of half-steel tires and full steel tires, respectively. Carbon black and white carbon black accounted for 19.2% and 17.2% of the weight of the half-steel tire and the weight of the whole steel tire. The steel cords accounted for 12.8% and 11.4% of the weight of half-steel tires and all-steel tire raw materials, respectively. Other tire aids accounted for 18.7% and 12.5% of the weight of half-steel tires and all-steel tire raw materials.
The most important raw material natural rubber and synthetic rubber price in the long cycle are lower in the long cycle, and the price in the medium and short cycles begins to decline, and constantly returns to the average. From the product properties, natural rubber and synthetic rubber belong to the substitute. When natural rubber supply is tension or price, the amount of synthetic rubber will rise, and the market status of the two is complementary. In addition, the main raw-butadiene of synthetic rubber is more affected by crude oil prices, and the price changes will also transform the price of natural rubber. As of November 16, the price of natural rubber, butadiene rubber, and the price of Tuxi rubber is 13900.0 yuan / ton, 13814.0 yuan / ton, 13427.0 yuan / ton; 2006-2021 historical price points is 40.7%, 47.4, respectively. %, 35.4%, the historical price points of 2016-2021 were 87.5%, 92.3%, 69.2%, respectively. In a long time, whether it is a hyperose or synthetic rubber, it is already in a low level of history, and it is difficult to rehabilitate the rising market that is stimulated by Wangsheng’s economic stimulation in 2010-2011. In the short term, although the price of the gel and synthetic rubber in the late 2020 is rapid, with the improvement of the supply and demand pattern, the price has slowly falls to the average level of the medium and long term.
From a supply point of view, the supply of natural rubber in recent years is still in a gentle rising process. Natural rubber belongs to agricultural products, the natural conditions such as geographical environment, soil, climate, are more stringent, including Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, India, China, Vietnam and Sri Lanka, which is difficult to grow in northern region in north latitude. It is different from the commodity, natural rubber, usually takes about 7 years, and the plant can be cut. According to the data of China’s rubber information trade network, 2021-2027 newly adding rubber tree is mainly a newly planted or revised rubber tree in 2014-2020, and the deposit stock will continue to maintain a certain growth. In addition, the cost of planting rubber trees is a heavy cost, and the supply party will not rank planting in the case of non-cash flow losses, and will remain a certain cutting amount during the low price.
In the medium term, natural rubber will still be in recent years. According to IRSG, 2020 global natural rubber production is about 12.98 million tons, down 5.2% year-on-year, and the global natural rubber demand is about 12.12 million tons, which is a significantly declined by 11.1%, which is still contemplated. With the gradual repair of global epidemics, the global natural gum will be reached from 3.1% to 13.38 million tons, and the demand rebounds from 5.6% to about 12.8 million tons, so the 2021 talents will still be in the pattern. In a long time, if there is no explosive demand growth, natural rubber needs to exceed the supply of around 2025, so natural rubber supply is still relatively sufficient in the short term.
Since the second half of 2020, there is a certain increase in the price of tire raw materials, and the short-term tire company gross profit margin has declined. In the future, with the price of the upstream raw material, the profitability of tire companies is expected to be significant. In addition, marine issues that previously plagued the export cost of tire enterprises and shipments will be solved with the normalization of global container supply and demand relationship. The above problems are all negative impacts in the short term, while the long-term development logic of China’s tire industry has not changed. As the demand for downstream car is good, the number of car insurance is increased, the tire market is expanded; and the domestic high-quality tires are expected to replace overseas products with high cost-effective products, improve market share, and achieve growth.
4 Three investment main line: grasp the determinism of cycle growth faucet
The industry is high, and some product boom is expected to continue. From the main leading product price, urea, DMF, acetate, titanium white powder, industrial silicon, spandex, glyphosate, Andriemei and other products have more than 80%, and the industry is high. Looking forward to 2022, the chemical industry has been influenced by the power consumption and dual-control policy. The difficulty of expansion in the industry is high. The demand terminal has grown steadily, and the overall supply is continuous, and many product boom is expected to maintain high.
The lead capital expenditure increased, and the future grows. Capital expenditure is the main driving force for supporting the company’s future development. The main chemical leading hands still have more construction projects and proposed projects. The future capital expenditure has grown steadily, and the company has passed the new project layout and integrated industrial chain, deepen their own moat. Harvest future growth.
5 Four of the investment main line: grasp the determinism of growth class
Semiconductor material: The problem is expected to alleviate, and domestic alternative processes accelerate
The Dongjin trend in the semiconductor industry is clear and is expected to strengthen the advantages of local supporting. The third capacity transfer of the terminal demand continues to advance, and the domestic crystal yuan production can accelerate expansion, and the domestic-funded enterprise is the protagonist of the production capacity expansion, including the Yangtze River storage, Wuhan new core, multiple 12-inch crystal The round factory project landed in mainland China. From historical data, localized supporting is a long-term trend in the semiconductor industry, US, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan’s semiconductor supporters in China continue to be higher than overseas. This year, the whole car manufacturer is deficient, leading to the production capacity of the domestic wafer factory, the rise of the domestic contained wafer factory is expected to strengthen the localization advantage, providing a good opportunity for the domestic replacement of semiconductor materials.
The first phase of the large fund focusing overlay, the second phase of the major fund supports the support of the semiconductor support is worthy of attention. Since the semiconductor industry has the characteristics of large investment, the return period is long, there is a support of state-owned capital, the first phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (Da Fund) raised around 138.7 billion yuan, plus local industrial funds, total scale exceeded 5000 100 million yuan. From the perspective of the semiconductor industry chain, the University Fund will use the integrated circuit manufacturing focus, accounting for about 67%, while the equipment / materials account for about 6%. The Phase II of the University of China has been established at the end of 2019, with a registered capital of 204.15 billion yuan, a total of 27 shareholders including China Telecom, Unicom Capital, China Electronic Information Industry Group, and Ziku Communications. The second phase of the Big Fund will increase will increase the investment force of semiconductor upstream equipment and materials, and the dragon head enterprises in materials and equipment will benefit.
Semiconductor materials are critical in the industrial chain. The complete semiconductor industry chain is roughly divided into three: EDA / IP / design service, chip design, wafer manufacturing / package test. The EDA / IP and design service part is the technical source of the entire semiconductor industry; chip design is a ring in the industrial chain; the wafer manufacturing and seal test part belongs to a typical capital-intensive industry, which is in the semiconductor industry chain. Vocative steps, there is a barting position in the industrial chain, the high and low of manufacturing processes directly affect the advanced level of the semiconductor industry, and the status is important.
Semiconductor materials mainly include front-end wafer manufacturing materials and back-end chip packages. Wafer manufacturing materials include silicon wafers, photoresist, photomask, sputtering targets, CMP materials, electronic special gas, wet chemicals, etc., package materials include organic substrates, wires, lead frames, package resins, ceramic packages , Adhesive material, etc. (Report Source: Future Wisdom)
Display materials: global demand steadily increase, domestic replacement continues to break through
The OLED panel industry has developed rapidly. In recent years, with the decline in OLED panel production, its penetration rate is rapidly increased, and the market size of the global AMOLED panel in 2014 is approximately $ 8 billion, and 2019 has grown to nearly 25 billion US dollars in 2019, which is also about $ near $ 25 billion. 6% increased to about 23%.
OLED panel income and shipping area are high-speed growth. The revenue of the OLED panel in 2021 will reach $ 42.5 billion, an increase of 9% year-on-year. The growth of income is mainly from smartphones and laptop panels. Looking forward to 2025 years, OLED income predicts increased by 11% to US $ 60.6 billion, which is benefited from the increase in smartphone sales with a tablet, laptop, and display of penetration. On the tablet, Apple is expected to enter the OLED tablet market in 2023, which will drive the OLED tablet market in 2024 more than $ 1 billion; notebook, Samsung displays are expected to be active after 2021, from 2023 OLED panel income or will exceed $ 1 billion. In addition, SDC and LGD will target the OLED monitor market, which is expected to have more than $ 500 million in 2024 through multi-model glass production and OLED display panels. The vigorous development of the downstream OLED terminal consumer goods will help the upstream OLED materials market grow rapidly.
Overseas giant monopoly OLED terminal material market. The global OLED materials market is basically occupied by Japan, US, Korean enterprises, including UDC, Merck, Novaled, Idemitsu Kosan, Dow, Duksan, LG Chemical, Samsung SDI, Doosan, Sumitomo Chemistry, SFC, etc., of which UDC is mainly OLED phosphorescent Handyl, Merck is the world’s main green phosphorescent material supplier, and the main blue, green main material and electronic transport material supplier are supplied by SDI, which is acquired by SDI’s high-efficiency transmission material and high efficiency A unique market position in the field of overbearing materials has developed rapidly in recent years.
Overseas faucets rely on technology to lead the industry development, patented layout construction moat. The 2019 global OLED material market is about $ 93 million, and CR5 reaches 66.7%, of which OLED second-generation phosphorescent luminescence techniques are jointly created by the University of Princeton, USA and US UDC, so UDC has a sufficient patent in phosphorescent materials, which is also laid UDC’s dominant position in the field of OLED materials. At present, the global OLED material leading enterprises are in the patent bureau, according to the IncOt Patent Network, with more patents represented by Samsung SDI, Merck, and UDC.
PI membrane: Electronic application is similar to Jin, domestic alternative gradually broken
Polyimide properties are extraordinary and widely used. Polyimide (PI) is a fragrant ring polymer compound containing an imide group (-CO-NH-CO-) in the molecular main chain, is known as “solving problems”. Pi is the most highly high temperature polymer material that is currently capable of practical application, while maintaining a good performance at low temperatures, which is not deformated in the range of -269 ° C to 280 ° C. In addition, PI materials have good performance in various aspects of processing properties, mechanical properties, insulating properties, flame retardant properties, chemical corrosion, and radiation resistance. The polyimide has a wide range of applications, mainly films, coatings, composite materials, fibers, foam plastics, engineering plastics, etc., which are the main form of electronic-level applications.
The PI film has a broad space. The 2017 PI film market size is $ 151 billion, of which Pi consumption used in FPC is $ 730 million, accounting for 48.3%, ranking all the first place. In the composition of other applications, the more important applications include flexible OLED display, 5G antenna materials, electronic device heat dissipation and other high-tech applications. With the progress of the downstream electronics industry, in 2022, the market size of global PI film materials will reach $ 2450 million.
The high-end electronic grade PI membrane market is monopolized overseas. Due to the high-rise and difficulty of research and development, the current high-end PI film global market share is mainly monopolized by minorities in foreign countries. US DuPont, Japan Yu Minhang, Japan Zhongyuan Chemistry and Korean SKPI and other manufacturers occupy more than 80% of the market share. The overall technical level of the domestic PI film industry and the foreign giants have a gap, and the technical strength of most enterprises is difficult to achieve the preparation of high-performance PI film requirements, and the scale is small, and the market share in the high performance PI film is lower.
Domestic companies began to force high-end products. Since 2017, the market prospects of PI film and the current status of the domestic industry have attracted the attention of many companies and capital. Domestic enterprises began to introduce foreign advanced production equipment, layout chemical amine method high-performance PI film. In the next few years, with the domestic new PI thin film production line mass production, domestic PI film production capacity and technical level and the international PI thin film giant are expected to further reduce. As a leading company representative, the domestic listing public Suri Titai, Dinglong Shares gradually started to lay out electronic PI membrane and PI slurry.
CDMO: The market is huge, Chinese companies accelerate growth
CMO / CDMO is a pharmaceutical contract processing outsourcing service, that is, CMO / CDMO enterprises accept downstream pharmaceutical commissions, for their pharmaceutical technology development, formulation development, clinical medication, intermediate manufacturing, raw materials production, preparation, packaging, etc. Serve. The CMO / CDMO process covers the improper stage of preclinical research, clinical trials, commercial production, etc.
Global CMO / CDMO companies are transforming the traditional “technical transfer + custom production” to “cooperative research and development + custom production” model, in which leading companies are gradually involved in the research and development process of customer innovation drugs, in the early days of innovation Introduced, therefore the development potential of the CMO / CDMO industry is large. According to Business Insights, the global CMO market is expected to increase from $ 62.8 billion in 2017 to $ 102.5 billion in 2021, an annual compound growth rate reaches 13.0%. In addition, with the comprehensive technical level and management system of developing countries such as China and India, the global CMO / CDMO industry has gradually transferred to China and other developing countries. According to INFORMA, China’s CMO market has increased from 13.8 billion yuan in 2012 to $ 44.1 billion in 2019, an annual compound growth rate is 18.1%, and is expected to continue to grow rapidly to 62.6 billion yuan in 2021.
Since the object of CMO / CDMO business services are mainly pharmaceutical companies and biotechnology companies such as Europe and America and Japan, this determines that customers have high-tech and low cost requirements for CMO companies. Currently, global CMO / CDMO companies focus on Europe and America and Asia, Asian CMO companies focus on China and India, China and India account for approximately 9% and 12% of the global CMO market, respectively. Europe and the United States’s CMO company has a longer development time, high maturity, but grows slowly; China and India’s CMO companies are emerging forces, although the development time is relatively short, but grows rapidly and has huge potential.
Medical CMO / CDMO industry is highly competitive, according to technical levels and profit space, industry competitors can be divided into three levels: primary, intermediate, senior manufacturers. Primary competitors mainly engage in low value-added outsourcing services, senior manufacturers have new technologies with independent intellectual property rights, optimize or innovate traditional processes, and meet the standard premise of CGMP; from primary to advanced, CMO / CDMO enterprise pharmaceutical technology The value and profit space are gradually elevated.
The chemical CDMO pattern is dispersed, and it is sufficient space for small enterprises. Compared with the lattice of the biopharmaceutical CDMO market, the market pattern of chemical CDMO is relatively dispersed, and it provides a set of opportunities for Chinese companies with cost advantage. Overall, global chemical CDMO companies are mainly divided into several echelons: the first echelon (more than $ 1 billion) mainly includes Switzerland Lonza, Catalent, the Netherlands Patheon, etc., but Even in the first echelon company, the global market share is less than 2%; the second echelon (more than $ 500 million) includes France Delpharm, Germany Aenova, Switzerland Siegfried, Sweden Recipharm, China Hefu Pharmaceutical Subsidiary), etc .; the third echelon (more than 100 million US dollars) has emerged more of China and Indian enterprises, domestic companies include Karaiying, Bob Station, Kang Longhua, Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical, Pupo Medicine Industry, networking technology, etc. In addition, there are many companies currently incorporated in 100 million US dollars, including company Rui Lin, which extends from the organic material intermediate to the medical intermediate field, and has a large development space. . At present, Rui Lin’s new material main pharmaceutical intermediate is at the front end of the CMO / CDMO production chain, that is, the pharmaceutical intermediate of pharmaceutical enterprises, and has not involved in the field of raw materials and finished products.
(This article is for reference only, does not represent any of our investment recommendations. For information on the use of information, please refer to the original text.)
Featured report Source: [Future Wisdom].
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