Figure / Figureworm
Recently, affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, capital risk aversion has heated up, and gold prices have risen.
China Securities News surveyed a number of gold stores, banks and pawnshops in Beijing and Chengdu and found that under the influence of the mentality of “buying up, not buying down”, gold products have become more popular.
Gold prices hit a one-year high
On February 24, COMEX gold hit a maximum of $1976.50 an ounce, a new high in nearly a year. Gold prices remained strong on February 28.
According to China Securities News, the staff of Chengdu Chow Tai Fook store said: “The lowest price of gold jewelry in 2021 is about 460 yuan per gram, and this year due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of gold has risen, but it has not yet reached the previous high.” During the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020, the price of gold jewelry reached a maximum of 600 yuan / gram. ”
Bar prices are also rising steadily.
Bank of Communications staff on Chengdu’s First Ring Road said: “The price of gold bars was about 380 yuan per gram before, but it has risen recently, and it is now around 390 yuan per gram. ”
Bank of China staff in downtown Chengdu said: “The current real-time quotation of gold bar prices is 400 yuan per gram.
is the high since 2022
Under the influence of the “buy up, not buy down” mentality, gold bars are more popular. Bank of China staff told reporters:
“After the recent rise in gold prices,
There are so many people buying gold bars that our inventory is running out
, has been replenished several times. The customers who buy gold bars are mainly middle-aged and elderly people, and they will come to buy a little to put when they have spare money. ”
The price of gold recycling has risen accordingly
The price of gold has been rising, which has also affected the trend of gold recycling prices. Bank of China staff said: “At present, our gold bar recycling price is about 380 yuan per gram, which is slightly higher than before. ”
The staff of the Chow Tai Fook store said: “Now the recycling price of gold jewelry is 360 yuan per gram, and the recycling price of gold bars is higher, 380 yuan per gram.” Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of gold has risen recently, and the price of recycling has also increased to a certain extent compared with 2021. ”
An employee of Beijing Huaxia Pawnshop said that the recycling price of gold has risen significantly recently, which was more than 350 yuan per gram before February, and the recycling price per gram has reached 381 yuan by February 28. This has also led to an increase in the number of people pawning gold bars recently than before.
The price of gold may increase volatility in the future
Due to the overlapping of many factors, the judgment of institutions on the trend of gold in 2022 has been greatly divided. However, from the perspective of the main influencing factors, it is mainly concentrated in two aspects. First, the Fed’s interest rate hike, due to the severe inflation situation in the United States, the market generally predicts that the number of interest rate hikes this year will be four times, each time 25 basis points, if the interest rate hike exceeds these two indicators, it will form a strong suppression of gold prices; The second is related geopolitical frictions, especially international events in which the United States is directly involved, which tend to have a positive impact on gold.
Zhu Zhigang, vice president and chief gold analyst of Guangdong Gold Association, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter,
The future of gold is indeed confusing.
“Previously, we predicted that gold would fluctuate in a wide range of $1700 / oz to $1900 / oz, and some more pessimistic forecasts believed that it would fall below $1700 / oz, but with the global situation change, gold suddenly became “fragrant food”, but we believe that gold has temporarily rebounded and recommends customers to adopt a short-term strategy.” Once the international situation turns, gold may experience a larger correction. ”
Goldman Sachs, however, pointed out that the two most important drivers of gold are “worry” (drivers of investment demand) and “wealth” (drivers of purchasing power in emerging markets). While real interest rates in the US are often a barometer of apprehension, their signaling power expires later in the economic cycle during monetary stimulus. Instead, the market’s assessment of recession risk is a better indicator of sentiment. Based on expectations of a slowdown in the US economy and heightened recession fears, Goldman Sachs expects inflows to gold-backed ETFs to grow to 300t per annum by the end of 2022. Meanwhile, emerging markets’ dollar-denominated GDP is expected to grow by 10%, and Goldman Sachs believes gold will be priced at $2,150 an ounce in 12 months.
“Recent trading strategies are based on daily ending, and pulling up or diving is instantaneous.
Whether it is short or long, it is very difficult, and the operation is in a dilemma.
However, I think the short term will remain high. Lin Rong, a senior investor in precious metals, said.
The performance of safe-haven assets is very different
In the international financial market, gold is known as the best safe-haven asset, crude oil is known as “black gold”, bitcoin is regarded by some as “virtual gold”, and the US dollar is also a more ideal asset, but in the face of a huge pool of funds, these “safe assets” are less numerous and perform very differently.
First, gold remains an ideal safe-haven asset.
The correlation coefficient between gold and the S&P 500 index is -0.6339, indicating that the gold market changes in the opposite direction to the stock market, that is, the price of gold falls when stocks rise, and the price of gold rises when stocks fall. With volatility of 0.81%, gold has strong stability and its returns are higher than those of major stock markets.
Secondly, crude oil has a good hedging function
, with a correlation of -0.7630 with the S&P 500, although volatility is high, but the yield is as high as 19.52%. However, crude oil prices reflect the special circumstances of the international energy crisis and geopolitical factors, and the market during this period may not be replicable. In terms of correlation and income, holding the US dollar is an unwise choice.
Finally, Bitcoin, which some biggs in the investment industry consider comparable to gold, is disappointing and does not have a store of value.
When tech stocks are in decline, celebrity effects (such as Elon Musk) weaken, and the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P is 0.6758, and the two markets change in the same direction: the price of Bitcoin changes in the same direction as the rhythm of the stock market. According to 21 journalists, the beta value of Bitcoin is 1.61. In other words, for every 1% rise in the S&P, Bitcoin rises by 1.61%, while for every 1% decline in the S&P index, Bitcoin loses 1.61%. From January 3 to February 25, Bitcoin fell by 15.09%, which was slightly higher than the NASDAQ index. In addition, Bitcoin has high volatility and is not suitable as a safe-haven asset.
Source |21st Century Business Herald (Reporter: Ye Maisui, Special Author Wang Yinggui), China Securities News (Reporter: Wang Fangyuan, Kang Xi)
Editor of this issue Liu Xueying